Champions League Matchday 3 Predictions: Wednesday, October 21

Nine games close out Matchday 3 of the league phase, headlined by Bayern vs Arsenal in Munich and Real Madrid hosting RB Leipzig. Two games kick off early at 12:45 PM ET, with the other seven at 3:00 PM ET. Here's how we see every game playing out based on league-phase numbers, recent form and team news. All times Eastern.

Manchester United @ Como — 12:45 PM ET

Projected score: Como 2-1 Manchester United

United haven't won in six matches across all competitions since thumping Sabah 4-0 on September 10. They lost 2-0 at Atlético Madrid last week, drew 1-1 at Leeds on Sunday, and sit 13th in the Premier League with seven points from seven games. Their only clean sheet all season came against Sabah, so we don't trust this defense on the road. Como, Champions League debutants under Cesc Fàbregas, smashed Leipzig 4-1 at the Sinigaglia on Matchday 1 before a 3-2 loss at Feyenoord, and they've lost just once at home since February. They'll be without Assane Diao, but Nico Paz is driving the attack and Como have scored 11 times in their last six. Both teams should score; the home side's form and finishing get it over the line.

Galatasaray @ Lille — 12:45 PM ET

Projected score: Lille 2-1 Galatasaray

Both sides are still looking for their first point. Lille lost 3-2 at home to Real Betis and 3-0 at Arsenal, and they've now gone 10 Champions League matches without a clean sheet. Galatasaray have been even leakier: a 3-1 loss at Sporting, then a 4-1 home defeat to Barcelona after taking the lead. The big number here is Gala's travel record. They've lost their last five Champions League away games and eight of their last nine. Lille have been solid at home in Ligue 1, and Ayase Ueda gives them a reliable focal point up top. With two defenses this porous, Galatasaray find the net, but Lille's home edge decides it.

Viking @ Aston Villa — 3:00 PM ET

Projected score: Aston Villa 3-1 Viking

Villa are third in the league phase after a 3-2 win at Club Brugge and a 6-0 demolition of Fenerbahçe, the biggest European win in club history. Nicolas Jackson already has three goals in 159 Champions League minutes. Viking have conceded three in both of their league-phase games (3-1 at Stuttgart, 3-3 at home to Bayern) and travel with a long injury list, including Anders Baertelsen, Martin Ove Røseth, Nick D'Agostino and Veton Berisha. Villa should control this, though there's a Premier League game three days later so expect some rotation, and Viking have scored 19 goals in their last five games, so a clean sheet isn't a lock. Villa by two.

Lens @ Club Brugge — 3:00 PM ET

Projected score: Club Brugge 3-1 Lens

Brugge are the entertainers of this competition. Their last six Champions League games have produced 31 goals, and they just stunned Inter 4-3 at San Siro behind a Nicolò Tresoldi hat-trick (he has four goals in 173 minutes). They've also scored in 25 straight Champions League matches. Lens came back to win 3-2 in Prague on Matchday 1 but were shut out 2-0 at home by Sporting last week, and they've led at halftime in only one of their last 20 Champions League games. Brugge's home attack is the best unit on the pitch, and Lens should get one through a Brugge defense that has already conceded five.

Arsenal @ Bayern Munich — 3:00 PM ET

Projected score: Bayern Munich 1-1 Arsenal

The game of the night. Bayern are unbeaten in all competitions, have scored 25 goals in their last six matches and have found the net in 23 straight Champions League games. But they're without Michael Olise through suspension, and he's been their most dangerous player with 14 goal contributions in 10 games. Arsenal come in with 14 consecutive league-phase wins and the best defense in the competition, though their attack has been flat with only four goals so far (including last week's 3-0 over Lille, all in a seven-minute burst). Bayern's streak says they score; Arsenal's defense says it won't be many. Without Olise, we lean toward a tight draw rather than a Bayern win.

Shakhtar Donetsk @ Inter — 3:00 PM ET

Projected score: Inter 2-1 Shakhtar Donetsk

This is a strange spot. Inter are pointless after losing 2-1 at Real Madrid and 4-3 at home to Club Brugge, and they've now lost seven of their last eight Champions League games. Shakhtar are four points clear of them after drawing PSV and beating AEK 3-1, with Mendoza scoring in both games. But history is heavily against the visitors: Shakhtar have never beaten Inter in seven competitive meetings and have scored just once in those games. Inter's attack is still fine (Lautaro scored twice against Brugge); it's the defense that's been the problem. We expect Inter to finally get a home win, but Shakhtar's form says they'll make it nervy.

RB Leipzig @ Real Madrid — 3:00 PM ET

Projected score: Real Madrid 3-1 RB Leipzig

Real Madrid are perfect through two games, beating Inter 2-1 and coming back from 3-1 down to win 4-3 at Roma. Vinícius Jr. is available (his suspension is domestic only), though Rodrygo, Ferland Mendy and Raúl Asencio remain out. Leipzig are 1-1 in the league phase: blown out 4-1 at Como, then a narrow 1-0 home win over PSV. That Como result shows how exposed they can be against pace in transition, which is exactly what Madrid do best at the Bernabéu. Madrid have conceded four in two games, though, so Leipzig grab one.

Feyenoord @ Real Betis — 3:00 PM ET

Projected score: Real Betis 2-1 Feyenoord

Betis have won both games 3-2 (at Lille and at home to Porto), and both teams have scored in six of their last eight matches. Manuel Pellegrini's side have no fresh absences, with Fran pulling the strings in attack. Feyenoord were hammered 5-1 at Barcelona to open the campaign but have been unbeaten since, including a 3-2 win over Como and four straight league wins. Troy Parrott is the likely starter up top with Hernández out. Their problem is the road: Feyenoord have dropped a long run of Champions League away games. Expect goals at both ends again, with Betis edging it at home.

LASK @ Sporting CP — 3:00 PM ET

Projected score: Sporting CP 2-0 LASK

Sporting have been one of the cleanest teams in the league phase so far: a 3-1 home win over Galatasaray and a 2-0 win at Lens, conceding just once. Luis Javier Suárez scored in both and has nine goals in 10 games this season. LASK have zero points and a -4 goal difference after losing at AEK Athens and at home to Liverpool. LASK did beat Sporting twice in the Europa League back in 2019 and 2020, but these are completely different squads. Sporting at Alvalade, in form and at full health, should handle this comfortably, and a Suárez goal looks like one of the best props on the card.

The Vault's Card

• Best lean: Sporting CP to win to nil
• Upset watch: Como over Manchester United
• Goals game: Club Brugge vs Lens, over 2.5
• Stay away: Bayern vs Arsenal (too close to call, so we're calling it a draw)

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